Bull or Bear Market?
Where are we?
Since my last post so much movement has taken place in the markets. Sentiment has moved from very bearish to cautiously optimistic. Fundamental indicators are showing increases in house prices, higher levels of mortgage approvals, better than expected figures from manufacturing.
Analysts are predicting that we have reached the worst of recession and will be heading for slow growth during 2010.
Since March the FTSE100 has moved from 3500 to 4950 area an astonishing increase of over 1500. Such a large move under a weak economy raises several questions, how strong is this move? and how long is it going to last?
There are some key areas that can cause major return to a renewed down move, unemployment and if interest rates are going to go up in the near future.
If Bank Of England increase interest rates the economy can suffer as its recovering from the recession, failing to raise the interest rates can make the economy grow too quickly. The minutes of the Bank Of England Monterey Policy Committee when its published usually gives details of what the members were thinking and an indication of when the interest rates may go up.
Best Time to Buy Stocks?
Historically September and the first three weeks of October are generally very weak periods for the markets. So its worth waiting for a pull-back of the stocks that you are interested in before entering . During 2008 the Santa Clause rally did not occur but 2009 may be better.
FTSE100
The FTSE has been in an uptrend since March. The uptrend is a retracement in a down-swing. The low of 17/7/2008 of 5071 is a key level resistance for the Bulls. The FTSE has a potential bull move of around 200 points. Once it reaches the 5071 look for a possible pull-back to 4690, 4475. If the market holds at these levels then the market is likely to head towards the 5350 then 5655. The encouraging sign for the Bulls is the market has moved above the 200sma and 50sma indicating the market has legs to go further north.
UK Stocks
The stocks listed below have potential to give reasonable returns in medium to long term. Fundamentally above average and technically indicating that there may be a pull-back before heading north
Since my last post so much movement has taken place in the markets. Sentiment has moved from very bearish to cautiously optimistic. Fundamental indicators are showing increases in house prices, higher levels of mortgage approvals, better than expected figures from manufacturing.
Analysts are predicting that we have reached the worst of recession and will be heading for slow growth during 2010.
Since March the FTSE100 has moved from 3500 to 4950 area an astonishing increase of over 1500. Such a large move under a weak economy raises several questions, how strong is this move? and how long is it going to last?
There are some key areas that can cause major return to a renewed down move, unemployment and if interest rates are going to go up in the near future.
If Bank Of England increase interest rates the economy can suffer as its recovering from the recession, failing to raise the interest rates can make the economy grow too quickly. The minutes of the Bank Of England Monterey Policy Committee when its published usually gives details of what the members were thinking and an indication of when the interest rates may go up.
Best Time to Buy Stocks?
Historically September and the first three weeks of October are generally very weak periods for the markets. So its worth waiting for a pull-back of the stocks that you are interested in before entering . During 2008 the Santa Clause rally did not occur but 2009 may be better.
FTSE100
The FTSE has been in an uptrend since March. The uptrend is a retracement in a down-swing. The low of 17/7/2008 of 5071 is a key level resistance for the Bulls. The FTSE has a potential bull move of around 200 points. Once it reaches the 5071 look for a possible pull-back to 4690, 4475. If the market holds at these levels then the market is likely to head towards the 5350 then 5655. The encouraging sign for the Bulls is the market has moved above the 200sma and 50sma indicating the market has legs to go further north.
UK Stocks
The stocks listed below have potential to give reasonable returns in medium to long term. Fundamentally above average and technically indicating that there may be a pull-back before heading north
- YULE Catto & Co PLC(YULC) suggested buy price around 120p
- International Power PLC (IPR) suggested buy 260p to 280p
- Thorntons (THT) buy around 80p
- Fenner PLC Industrial Engineering buy around 100p
- Carillion PLC (CLLN) buy around 280p
- BATM Advanced Communication Technology Hardware & Equipment (BVC) buy around 40p
posted by Bull Kicker at
16:20
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